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Roche Raises Forecast as Tamiflu Orders Boost Sale

출처 : Wall Street Journal OCTOBER 15, 2009, 9:09 A.M. ET
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107204574474520488260170.html




ZURICH — Pharmaceutical company Roche Holding AG on Thursday raised its 2009 sales forecast for the second time this year, after reporting a better-than-expected 9.7% rise in third-quarter sales, mainly driven by orders for antiviral drug Tamiflu in the wake of the H1N1 swine-flu pandemic.


The world’s largest maker of cancer drugs said it now expects at least high-single-digit full-year sales growth at its pharmaceuticals division. It revised up its forecast for total full-year sales to grow “well ahead” of the market, from just “ahead” of the market.


Tamiflu sales are now expected to reach 2.7 billion Swiss francs ($2.66 billion), up from the previous target of 2 billion francs, which the company hit in the first nine months of the year.


Roche confirmed it expects core earnings per share to rise at a double-digit pace in 2009 and in 2010.


Sales for the three months ended Sept. 30 rose to 12.39 billion francs, beating analyst expectations for 12.18 billion francs. The company doesn’t publish third-quarter net-profit figures.


“Group sales were better than expected, especially because of Tamiflu,” said Helvea pharmaceutical analyst Karl-Heinz Koch.


Still, analysts said the projected extra sales of Tamiflu are only a short-term benefit and that overall sales growth should slow in coming years because of the high market penetration of Roche’s cancer drugs.


“Especially in the U.S., sales grew slower than the market, with a 2% increase in local currencies, excluding Tamiflu,” said Birgit Kuhlhoff of Rahn & Bodmer. Stripping out Tamiflu sales, she expects 2010 sales growth at Roche of around 5%.


Sales for the company’s flagship pharmaceuticals division rose 11% in the third quarter to 9.93 billion francs. Stripping out Tamiflu sales and calculating in the currencies where sales were generated, overall sales in the period increased 5%.


Sales of Avastin — which treats advanced colorectal, breast, lung and kidney cancer — rose to 1.59 billion francs in the third quarter, making it the company’s best-selling drug in the quarter, though analysts had called for revenue of 1.65 billion francs.


Rituxan, sold in Europe as MabThera, a treatment for cancer and rheumatoid arthritis, reached sales of 1.51 billion francs, also below estimates of 1.6 billionfrancs.


The Swiss company bought out U.S.-biotech partner Genentech earlier this year to reinforce its leading position in cancer medicines and expects annual savings of 1 billion francs from the deal. In July, Roche raised its earnings forecast, reflecting a swift integration of the company. By 2015, Roche expects to have returned to a positive net cash position as it is using free cash flow to pay down debt taken on to fund the $47 billion Genentech takeover.



Write to Julia Mengewein at julia.mengewein@dowjones.com

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