글로벌카본프로젝트(GCP) Data Sources Emissions from CO2 fossil fuel. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes were calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2006 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2007 and 2008 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6% (currently ±0.5 PgC). Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger. Emissions from land use change. CO2 emissions from land use change were calculated by using a book-keeping method with the revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment. Emissions after 2005 were extrapolated from the previous 25-year trend of 1.5 PgC per year.. We used fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database vs.2 over tropical forests to provide inter-annual variability on emissions over the last three years. Uncertainty of the global estimate of land use emissions is large and considered to be ±0.7 PgC in this analysis. Emission uncertainties at the country level can be large. Ocean CO2 sink. The global ocean sink was estimated using an ensemble of four ocean general circulation models coupled to ocean biogeochemistry models. Models were forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Recent trends in regional CO2 sinks in the Southern Ocean, North Atlantic, and Pacific oceans were detected directly from repeated observations. Land CO2 sink. The terrestrial sink was estimated using an ensemble of 5 global vegetation models forced by observed CO2 concentration and a combination of meteorological data from the Climatic Research Unit and US National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Data Files
http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm
Carbon Budget
Data
Atmospheric CO2. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 1% or about 0.04 PgC of the 4PgC per year accumulated on average since 2000.
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Carbon Budget
Other Recent Analyses
출처 : http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/08/recent-analysis.htm
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Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Le Quéré C (2008) Drivers of interannual to interdecadal variability in atmospheric in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and airborne fraction. Biogeosciences 5: 1601–1613.
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Sitch S, Huntigford C, Gedney N et al. (2008) Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology 14: 1–25, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x.
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Carbon Budget
References Supporting this Analysis
This year’s budget release is based on:
Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G Laurent Bopp, Philippe Ciais, Thomas J. Conway, Scott C. Doney, Richard A. Feely, Pru Foster, Pierre Friedlingstein, Kevin Gurney, Richard A. Houghton, Joanna I. House, Chris Huntingford, Peter E. Levy, Mark R. Lomas, Joseph Majkut, Nicolas Metzl, Jean P. Ometto, Glen P. Peters, I. Colin Prentice, James T. Randerson, Steven W. Running, Jorge L. Sarmiento, Ute Schuster, Stephen Sitch, Taro Takahashi, Nicolas Viovy, Guido R. van der Werf and F. Ian Woodward (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature Geoscience 2, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689
Other supporting references cited in the powerpoint “Carbon Budget 2008″:
Canadell JG, Corinne Le Quéré, Michael R. Raupach, Christopher B. Field, Erik T. Buitehuis, Philippe Ciais, Thomas J. Conway, RA. Houghton, Gregg Marland (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 0702737104
Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Houghton RA (2008) Anthropogenic CO2 emissions in Africa. Biogeosciences 6: 463-468.
International Monetary Fund (2009) World economic outlook. October 2009.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/02/index.htm
Le Quéré C, Raupach MR3, Canadell JG3, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature Geoscience, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689.
Le Quéré C, Rödenbeck C, Buitenhuis ET, Conway TJ, Langensfelds R, Gomez A, Labuschangne C, Ramonet M, Nakazawa T, Metzl N, Gillett NP, Heimann M (2007) Saturations of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change. Science 316: 1735-1738.
Marland G, Hamal K, Jonas M (2009) How uncertain are estimates of CO2 emissions. Journal of Industrial Ecology 13: 4-7.
Peters GP, Hertwich EG (2008) CO2 embodied international trade with implications for global climate policy. Enivornmental Science and Technology 42: 1401-1407.
Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Le Quéré C (2008) Drivers of interannual to interdecadal variability in atmospheric in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and airborne fraction. Biogeosciences 5: 1601–1613.
Raupach MR, G. Marland, P. Ciais, C. Quéré, J.G. Canadell, C.B. Field (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 14: 10288-10293.
Sitch S, Huntigford C, Gedney N et al. (2008) Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology 14: 1–25, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x.
van der Werf GR, Randerson JT, Giglio L, Collatz GL, Kasibhatla PS, Arellano AF, Jr (2006) Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6: 3423–3441.
