[미 질병관리본부 신종플루 공식 통계]
입원 환자 : 38,455명
사망 환자 : 1,779명
[미 질병관리본부 신종플루 추정 통계]
신종플루 추정 감염자 : 3천9백만명~8천만명 (평균 5천5백만명)
신종플루 추정 입원자 : 17만3천명~36만2천명(평균 24만6천명)
신종플루 추정 사망자 : 7천8백80명~1만6천4백60명(평균 1만1천1백60명)
*** 미국에서 계절성 독감으로 인한 사망자가 연평균 3만6천명라는 사실을 염두에 두고 평가를 해보면…
공식 통계로 잡힌 신종플루 사망자는 계절성 독감 사망자의 1/20에 불과하다. 추정사망자 통계를 가지고 관대하게 평가하다고 하더라도 신종플루 사망자는 계절성 독감 사망자의 1/3에 불과했다는 점을 확인할 수 있다.
참고로 현재까지 신종플루로 사망한 사람은 전세계적으로 13,000~15,000명 정도로 집계되고 있고… 추정 사망자로 높게 잡는다고 하더라도 10만명~15만명 수준을 넘지 않을 것으로 보인다.
그런데 해마다 전세계적으로 계절성 독감으로 사망하는 사람이 25만~50만명으로 추정된다.
따라서 미국 질병관리본부(CDC)의 통계에 따른 계절성 독감 사망자와 비교해본 수치와 세계보건기구(WHO) 또는 유럽연합질병관리본부(ECDC)의 통계에 따른 계절성 독감 사망자와 비교해본 수치의 비율이 거의 비슷하다.(미국에서 신종플루 사망자와 계절성 독감 사망자의 비율은 전세계 신종플루 사망자와 전세계 계절성 독감 사망자의 비율과 비슷하다.)
따라서 2009 신종플루 대유행 선언은 지나치게 과장되었음을 확인할 수 있다. 객관적으로 봤을 때, 2009 신종플루는 대유행 인플루엔자라기 보다는 돼지독감 바이러스가 인간에게 전염된 약간 특이한 형태(전염율은 일반 계절성 독감보다 높으나 치명율은 계절성 독감보다 훨씬 낮으며, 65세 이하의 젊은층에게 더 피해를 끼쳤음. 국내에서는 특이하게 65세 이상의 기저질환자의 사망이 압도적으로 많았음.)의 계절성 독감 바이러스라고 생각한다.
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CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Cases and Related Hospitalizations and Deaths from April-December 12, 2009, By Age Group
| 2009 H1N1 | Mid-Level Range* | Estimated Range * |
| Cases | ||
| 0-17 years | ~18 million | ~12 million to ~26 million |
| 18-64 years | ~32 million | ~23 million to ~47 million |
| 65 years and older | ~5 million | ~4 million to ~7 million |
| Cases Total | ~55 million | ~39 million to ~80 million |
| Hospitalizations | ||
| 0-17 years | ~78,000 | ~55,000 to ~115,000 |
| 18-64 years | ~145,000 | ~102,000 to ~213,000 |
| 65 years and older | ~23,000 | ~16,000 to ~34,000 |
| Hospitalizations Total | ~246,000 | ~173,000 to ~362,000 |
| Deaths | ||
| 0-17 years | ~1,180 | ~830 to ~1,730 |
| 18-64 years | ~8,620 | ~6,090 to ~12, 720 |
| 65 years and older | ~1,360 | ~960 to ~2,010 |
| Deaths Total | ~11,160 | ~7,880 to ~16,460 |
Percentage of Visits for Influenza-like Illness (ILI) Reported by the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet), National Summary 2008-2009 and Previous Two Seasons
출처 : 미 질병관리본부 (Posted January 15, 2010, 5:00 PM ET, for Week Ending January 8, 2010)
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/#iligraph
| Week | Age 0-4 | Age 5-24 | Age 25-64 | Age 25-49 | Age 50-64 | Age over 64 | Total ILI | Total Patients | % Unweighted ILI | % Weighted ILI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 3712 | 12930 | 3851 | 425 | 20918 | 612507 | 3.41514464324489 | 3.4732640676835 | ||
| 36 | 4082 | 13326 | 4477 | 514 | 22399 | 602176 | 3.71967663938782 | 4.06321953907124 | ||
| 37 | 4481 | 15359 | 5668 | 650 | 26158 | 688867 | 3.79724968680456 | 4.24531323184887 | ||
| 38 | 4503 | 14082 | 5186 | 582 | 24353 | 653067 | 3.72902014647808 | 4.17942338153808 | ||
| 39 | 5040 | 16405 | 6085 | 568 | 28098 | 655255 | 4.28810157877468 | 4.89294937942399 | ||
| 40 | 8950 | 26138 | 8051 | 2126 | 872 | 46137 | 805069 | 5.73081313527164 | 6.16663957444425 | |
| 41 | 10846 | 30233 | 9449 | 2585 | 1001 | 54114 | 811607 | 6.66751272475472 | 7.09287934696687 | |
| 42 | 12274 | 36618 | 11285 | 2781 | 1004 | 63962 | 851344 | 7.51306170008833 | 7.71641644615004 | |
| 43 | 12388 | 34425 | 11137 | 2841 | 1044 | 61835 | 839902 | 7.36216844346126 | 7.60255809880468 | |
| 44 | 11109 | 28187 | 9154 | 2411 | 1018 | 51879 | 820196 | 6.32519544108969 | 6.7689366829816 | |
| 45 | 9367 | 18745 | 7151 | 2042 | 857 | 38162 | 746318 | 5.11336990398195 | 5.49631201112116 | |
| 46 | 6658 | 11126 | 4782 | 1348 | 622 | 24536 | 627837 | 3.90802071238235 | 4.25024554240254 |
Laboratory Confirmed Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations
and Deaths from August 30 2009 to January 9, 2010
Posted January 15, 2010, 11:00 AM ET
Data reported to CDC by January 12, 2010, 12:00 AM ET
Cases Defined by | Hospitalizations | Deaths | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Influenza Laboratory-Tests** | 38,455 | 1,779 | |
*Reports can be based on syndromic, admission or discharge data, or a combination of data elements that could include laboratory-confirmed and influenza-like illness hospitalizations. *Laboratory confirmation includes any positive influenza test (rapid influenza tests, RT-PCR, DFA, IFA, or culture), whether or not typing was done. The table shows aggregate reports of all laboratory confirmed influenza hospitalizations and deaths (including 2009 H1N1 and seasonal flu) since August 30, 2009 received by CDC from U.S. states and territories**. This table will be updated weekly each Friday at 11 a.m. For the 2009-2010 influenza season, states are reporting based on new case definitions for hospitalizations and deaths effective August 30, 2009. CDC will continue to use its traditional surveillance systems to track the progress of the 2009-2010 influenza season. For more information about influenza surveillance, including reporting of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths, see Questions and Answers: Monitoring Influenza Activity, Including 2009 H1N1. The number of 2009 H1N1 hospitalizations and deaths reported to CDC from April – August 2009 is available on the Past Situation Updates page. For state level information, refer to state health departments. International Human Cases of 2009 H1N1 Flu Infection **States report weekly to CDC either 1) laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations and deaths or 2) pneumonia and influenza syndrome-based cases of hospitalization and death resulting from all types or subtypes of influenza. Although only the laboratory confirmed cases are included in this report, CDC continues to analyze data both from laboratory confirmed and syndromic hospitalizations and deaths. | |||
Date Reported | Laboratory-Confirmed 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pediatric Deaths | Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza A Subtype Unknown Pediatric Deaths | Laboratory-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This Week (Week 1, January 3, 2009 to January 9, 2010) | 6 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| Since August 30, 2009 | 195 | 40 | 1 | 236 |
| Cumulative since April 26, 2009 | 255 | 43 | 2 | 300 |
This table is based on data reported to CDC through the Influenza-Associated Pediatric Mortality Surveillance System. Influenza-associated deaths in children (persons less than 18 years) was added as nationally notifiable condition in 2004. For more information about influenza-associated pediatric mortality, see FluView. | ||||
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CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Influenza Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths in the United States, April – December 12, 2009
출처 : 미 질병관리본부, January 15, 2010 1:00 PM ET
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm
