“히말라야 빙하 소멸론 근거 없다”

“인도 과학자의 추측일 뿐 연구 뒷받침 없어”

연합뉴스 | 입력 2010.01.18 11:31

(서울=연합뉴스) 지구 온난화로 오는 2035년까지 히말라야 산맥의 빙하가 녹아 없어질 것이라는 유엔 정부간기후변화위원회(IPCC)의 지난 2007년 주장에 과학적 근거가 없는 것으로 드러났다.

당시 IPCC 보고서에서 히말라야 부분을 담당했던 과학자들이 관련 내용을 삭제를 검토하고 있어 IPCC 지구온난화 관련 보고서의 신빙성에도 타격이 예상된다.

17일 텔레그래프, 선데이타임스 등 영국 언론에 따르면 2007년 발간된 IPCC 보고서 작성자들이 최근 2035년까지 히말라야 빙하가 녹아 없어질 것이라는 주장이 과학적 연구가 아닌 이보다 8년 전에 나온 한 과학잡지의 보도에 근거를 뒀다고 시인했다.

게다가 과학잡지에 게재된 기사도 당시 인도 델리의 자와할랄 네루 대학 교수였던 사이에드 하스나인과의 통화 내용을 토대로 작성된 것으로 드러났다.

IPCC 보고서의 히말라야 부분에 대한 내용이 하스나인의 인터뷰 내용에 기초한 것이었다는 사실을 처음 지적한 것은 당시 영국 과학전문 주간지 `뉴사이언티스트’에 기사를 게재했던 프레드 피어스였다.

피어스는 1999년 인도의 한 잡지에서 2035년까지 히말라야에서 빙하가 녹아 없어질 것이라는 하스나인 교수의 주장을 접한 뒤 그에게 전화를 걸어 인터뷰를 했다.

그는 당시 하스나인이 관련 내용이 담긴 논문을 영국에서 발표할 것이며 공식적으로 검증된 논문이 아니라는 사실을 밝혔다고 설명했다.

그러나 이후 논문을 확인한 피어스는 2035년이라는 구체적인 연도에 대한 언급이 없고 하스나인의 주장을 뒷받침할 만한 과학적 근거도 제시돼있지 않다는 사실을 알게 됐다.

하스나인도 자신의 주장이 “추측”이었으며 이를 뒷받침할 만한 연구가 이뤄진 것은 아니었다고 인정했다.

사태와 관련, IPCC 보고서의 히말라야 관련 부분을 담당한 무라리 랄 박사는 “만약 하스나인이 그러한 주장을 한 적이 없다거나 그것이 잘못된 추측이었다고 공식적으로 밝힌다면 히말라야 빙하 관련 내용을 향후 IPCC 평가에서 제외하도록 권고할 것”이라고 말했다.

mong0716@yna.co.kr

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UN report that said Himalayan glaciers would melt within 25 years was all hot air
By David Derbyshire

출처 : 데일리메일, Last updated at 9:59 AM on 18th January 2010
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1243963/UN-science-report-stated-Himalayan-glaciers-melt-25-years-guess.html?ITO=1490

Claims by the world’s leading climate scientists that most of the Himalayan glaciers will vanish within 25 years were last night exposed as nonsense.

The alarmist warning appeared two years ago in a highly influential report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

At the time the IPCC insisted that its report contained the latest and most detailed evidence yet of the risks of man-made climate change to the planet.

But the experts behind the warning have now admitted their claim was not based on hard science – but a news story that appeared in the magazine New Scientist in the late 1990s.

That story was itself based on a telephone conversation with an Indian scientist who has since admitted it was little more than speculation.

The revelation is a major blow to the credibility of the IPCC which was set up to provide political leaders with clear, independent advice on climate change.

It follows the ‘Climategate’ email row in which scientists at the University of East Anglia appeared to have manipulated data to strengthen the case for man-made climate change.

Dr Benny Peiser, of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, said: ‘The IPCC review process has been shown on numerous occasions to lack transparency and due diligence.

‘Its work is controlled by a tightly knit group of individuals who are completely convinced that they are right. As a result, conflicting data and evidence, even if published in peer reviewed journals, are regularly ignored, while exaggerated claims, even if contentious or not peer-reviewed, are often highlighted in IPCC reports.

‘Not surprisingly, the IPCC has lost a lot of credibility in recent years. It is also losing the trust of more and more governments who are no longer following its advice – as the Copenhagen summit showed.’
The flawed claim appeared in chapter ten of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, which stated: ‘Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate.’
Rather than being based on a peer-reviewed, published scientific study, the claim was borrowed from a 2005 report by the campaigning green charity WWF.
The WWF, in turn, took the claim from a 1999 report in New Scientist. The magazine based its story on a phone interview with Syed Hasnain, a little-known Indian scientist at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi.
Dr Hasnain now says the comment was ‘pure speculation’.
The gaffe is a major embarrassment for the IPCC.

Yesterday Prof Murari Lal, who edited the section on glaciers in the IPCC report, told a Sunday newspaper: ‘If Hasnain says officially that he never asserted this, or that it is a wrong presumption, than I will recommend-that the assertion about Himalayan glaciers be removed from future IPCC assessments.’
Glacier experts are astonished it has taken so long to expose the blunder. Most Himalayan glaciers are hundreds of feet thick and could not melt within 25 years. The quickest melting are shrinking at a rate of two to three feet of thickness a year.
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Mulayam accepts Amar resignation

출처 : 텔레그라프인디아, 2010년 1월 17일
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1100118/jsp/nation/story_11997652.jsp

New Delhi, Jan. 17: Samajwadi Party president Mulayam Singh Yadav has accepted Amar Singh’s resignation from all the party posts he held, including that of general secretary.

a two-line letter to Amar, who put in his papers on January 6, Mulayam said he was accepting the resignations with a “heavy heart”.

He added that Amar had tried his best to strengthen the party, for which he (Mulayam) would always be grateful.

Nepal treaty review

Kathmandu: India has agreed to review the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship with Nepal to “further strengthen bilateral relations”. Maoists in Nepal have long criticised the treaty as a symbol of inequality in India-Nepal ties.

Himalaya melt warning an error

London (PTI): A warning that most of the Himalayan glaciers will melt by 2035 owing to climate change is likely to be retracted after the United Nations body that issued it admitted to a series of scientific blunders. Two years ago, the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) headed by India’s Rajendra Pachauri had found that the world’s glaciers were melting so fast that those in the Himalayas could vanish by 2035. In the past few days, the scientists behind the warning have admitted that it was based on a news story in the popular science journal New Scientist, published eight years before the IPCC’s 2007 report, The Sunday Times reported today.

Bokaro steel plant officers dead

Purulia: Two officers of Bokaro Steel Plant died on Saturday when the car they were travelling in collided head-on with a bus on National Highway 32. Binod Kumar Mitra and Niranjan Mitra were on their way from Bokaro to Jamshedpur when the accident occurred about 12km from Purulia town. Police said the car’s driver, Anil Kumar, tried to overtake a truck on the highway but failed to notice a private bus coming from the opposite direction. “The front part of the car was smashed. Both the officers died on the spot,” a police official said.

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