ECDC FORWARD LOOK RISK ASSESSMENT

Likely scenarios for influenza in 2010 and the 2010/2011 influenza season in Europe and the consequent work priorities

출처 : ECDC 25 Mar 2010
http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/H1N1/Documents/1003_RA_forward_look_influenza.pdf

Contents
Executive summary………………………………………………………………………………………….2
Rationale of this risk assessment ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..3
Source, date and type of request …………………………………………………………………………………………………….3
Objectives …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………3
Consulted experts ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….3
Background………………………………………………………………………………………………..4
Terminology and assumptions………………………………………………………………………………………………………..4
Methodology, available information and evidence assessment…………………………………………………………………4
The 2009 pandemic in Europe…………………………………………………………………………………………………………6
Current situation……………………………………………………………………………..6
The evidence………………………………………………………………………………………………………..6
Observations from the Southern Hemisphere, 2009/2010, and other regions …………….6
Observations on previous pandemics and inter-pandemic periods (France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, UK, USA) ……..7
1957 pandemic A(H2N2) …………………………………………………………………………………….. 7
1968 pandemic A(H3N2) ………………………………………………………………………………………………… 7
Estimations of numbers and proportions of people likely now to be immune ……………..7
Mathematical modelling (Germany, EU modelling group)…………………………………………8
Most likely scenarios to the end of the pandemic season (week 20, 2010)………………………………………………….8
Pandemic influenza……………………………………………………………………………….8
Seasonal influenza and other respiratory pathogens …………………………………9
Likely scenarios for the influenza season 2010/2011 …………………………………………….9
Implications for vaccination …………………………………………………………………………..9
Work to be undertaken in 2010……………………………………………………………………9
Tables and figures ………………………………………………………………………………….11
References ……………………………………………………………………………………………….15
Annex 1 Working Group Members …………………………………………………………16
Annex 2 Considerations towards the probability for another pandemic wave in the beginning of 2010 …….. 17
Likely scenarios for influenza in 2010 and the 2010/2011 influenza season in Europe and the consequent work priorities