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UNCLAS SEOUL 001144 

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS 
E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KS KN

SUBJECT: GNP DEFEAT IN BY-ELECTIONS REFLECTS PUBLIC ANGST 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  The ruling Grand National Party’s (GNP)

poor showing in the June 4 by-election — on the same day as

President Lee Myung-bak’s 100th day in office – is largely a

reflection of public dissatisfaction with the new

administration.  The GNP party won only nine of the 52 local

seats up for grabs, and local press are contrasting the GNP’s

failure to win a single seat in Seoul with their landslide

victories in the capital region in the April 9 general

election.  End Summary. 
—————————–

What Was At Stake and Who Won

—————————– 
¶2.  (SBU) The final voting results, which came out on June 5,

reflected ongoing political backlash over U.S. beef imports.

Out of the total 52 seats (9 county/district chief posts, 29

provincial and municipal council seats, 14 township council

seats) up for grabs in the June 4 by-election, the GNP won

only nine; the main opposition United Democratic Party (UDP)

secured 23.  This is a big set back for the ruling party,

which had won every local election since the 2004

parliamentary elections. 
—————–

Low Voter Turnout

—————– 
¶3.  (SBU) Voter turnout for the by-elections was 23.2

percent, the second lowest in local election history, despite

the National Election Commission (NEC) extending voting hours

until 8 pm from the usual 6 pm.  According to an NEC

official, the low turnout had been expected to a certain

extent because the by-elections came shortly after the

presidential and parliamentary elections.  Bad weather also

contributed to the low turnout. 
——————————————

Post-Local Election Politics Focus on Beef

—————————————— 
¶4.  (SBU) UDP leader Sohn Hak-kyu called the results a

“warning” to the Lee Myung-bak administration and emphasized

his party’s consolidated drive to push for renegotiations of

the U.S.-ROK beef deal.  The GNP, in a statement issued by

spokesperson Cho Yoon-sun, also acknowledged that, “there was

insufficient communication between the GNP and citizens,” and

that “we humbly accept the public sentiment reflected in the

by-elections.”  Widespread perceptions among all parties that

the elections reflected public dissatisfaction with President

Lee Myung-bak’s handling of state affairs — especially the

U.S. beef deal — makes it likely that the GNP will increase

its pressure on the Blue House to expand the scope of the

Cabinet reshuffle plan expected in the near future. 
——-

Comment

——- 
¶5.  (SBU) The Lee Myung-bak Administration is in trouble, and

it is unclear if anyone on his team can fashion a political

bailout before it is too late.  After the results were

announced, Lee reportedly told his staff to prepare

countermeasures.  Nobody believes there is a magic bullet

because a series of apologies, proposals and policy ideas

have all fallen flat.

VERSHBOW