[지구의 미래 : 기후변화는 문명의 붕괴를 초래할 것이다]
인디펜던트지가 보고서를 사전에 입수하여 보도한 내용에 따르면 기후변화가 문명의 붕괴를 초래할 수 있다는 내용의 미래보고서가 2009년 8월 출간 예정이라고 합니다.
the World Federation of the United Nations Associations의 씽크탱크였던 the Millennium Project의 이번 보고서는 6700쪽에 이르며 전세계 2700명의 전문가가 참여했다고 합니다.
연구에 참여한 전문가들은 전세계적인 경제위기 때문에 청정 에너지, 식량조달량, 빈곤, 민주주의의 성장이 위험에 빠져 있다고 경고했습니다.
비록 미래는 지난 20년보다 더 나아지겠지만, 전세계적인 경제위기는 향후 10년간 여러가지 미래 지표들을 낮출 것으로 예상했습니다.
지구의 절반은 물-식량-에너지 공급의 부족과 기후변화로 누적된 영향과 결합된 극심한 실업문제로 인하여 폭력과 소요에 직면할 것이라고 경고했습니다.
그러나 보고서는 이러한 위협이 미래에 긍정적으로 작용할 가능성도 있다고 예측했다고 합니다. 기후변화와 경제위기가 이기적인 행동에서 인도적인 행동으로 전환을 가져다주고, 자기중심적인 사춘기적 행동에서 보다 지구적으로 반응하는 어른스러움으로 변화를 가져다 줄 수도 있다는 것입니다.
현재 세계는 정치, 환경, 경제적 문제 때문에 이주가 증가하고, 식량 및 에너지 가격 폭등, 물 부족 등의 위기에 직면해 있으며, 지구인구의 절반이 사회적 불안정, 폭력 등의 위험에 빠질 수 있다고 합니다.
기후변화의 악영향에 의해 2025년에는 30억명이 물을 적절하게 공급받지 못할 수 있으며, 도시로 인구집중(대규모 도시화), 동물의 활동영역 침해, 공장식 가축사육 등은 새로운 대유행 전염병(new pandemics)을 초래할 수 있다고 경고하고 있습니다.
정부와 재계 지도자들은 인간의 생존을 위협하는 기후변화에 대처하는 10개년 계획을 세워야 하며, 특히 미국과 중국은 더 많은 노력을 기울여야 한다고 주장했습니다.
환경 문제만 중요한 것이 아니라 세계 평화도 중요하며 미국과 중국, 나토와 러시아, G8과 G20의 상호 협력이 필요함을 역설하고 있습니다.
기후변화에 대한 효과적이고 적절한 조치는 이제 시작에 불과하며, 기후변화에 대한 대응과 예방책들이 채택이 되는 것보다 더 빨리 환경 문제들이 악화되고 있습니다.
이번 밀레니엄 프로젝트의 책임자로 보고서 집필자 중의 한 사람인 Jerome Glenn은 ”기후변화에 대한 해답은 있지만, 아직까지 전세계적인 규모로 이에 대처해야 할 필요성이 있다는 결정이 이루어지지 못했다. 3가지 거대한 전환이 이루어진다면 세계 경제와 지구의 자연환경에 도움이 될 것이다. 그 전환은 첫째 담수농업을 해수농업으로 전환하는 것이다.(민물위주의 농업을 바닷물 위주의 농업으로 전환하는 것이다) 둘째, 가축을 사육하지 않고 건강한 고기를 생산하는 방식으로 전환하는 것이다.(공장식 축산업을 포기하고 건강한 육류를 얻는 방식으로 전환하는 것이다.) 셋째, 휘발유 차를 전기차로 바꾸는 것이다.”라고 역설했습니다.
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The planet’s future: Climate change ‘will cause civilisation to collapse’
Authoritative new study sets out a grim vision of shortages and violence – but amid all the gloom, there is some hope too
An effort on the scale of the Apollo mission that sent men to the Moon is needed if humanity is to have a fighting chance of surviving the ravages of climate change. The stakes are high, as, without sustainable growth, “billions of people will be condemned to poverty and much of civilisation will collapse”.
This is the stark warning from the biggest single report to look at the future of the planet – obtained by The Independent on Sunday ahead of its official publication next month. Backed by a diverse range of leading organisations such as Unesco, the World Bank, the US army and the Rockefeller Foundation, the 2009 State of the Future report runs to 6,700 pages and draws on contributions from 2,700 experts around the globe. Its findings are described by Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General of the UN, as providing “invaluable insights into the future for the United Nations, its member states, and civil society”.
The impact of the global recession is a key theme, with researchers warning that global clean energy, food availability, poverty and the growth of democracy around the world are at “risk of getting worse due to the recession”. The report adds: “Too many greedy and deceitful decisions led to a world recession and demonstrated the international interdependence of economics and ethics.”
Although the future has been looking better for most of the world over the past 20 years, the global recession has lowered the State of the Future Index for the next 10 years. Half the world could face violence and unrest due to severe unemployment combined with scarce water, food and energy supplies and the cumulative effects of climate change.
And the authors of the report, produced by the Millennium Project – a think-tank formerly part of the World Federation of the United Nations Associations – set out a number of emerging environmental security issues. “The scope and scale of the future effects of climate change – ranging from changes in weather patterns to loss of livelihoods and disappearing states – has unprecedented implications for political and social stability.”
But the authors suggest the threats could also provide the potential for a positive future for all. “The good news is that the global financial crisis and climate change planning may be helping humanity to move from its often selfish, self-centred adolescence to a more globally responsible adulthood… Many perceive the current economic disaster as an opportunity to invest in the next generation of greener technologies, to rethink economic and development assumptions, and to put the world on course for a better future.”
Scientific and technological progress continues to accelerate. IBM promises a computer at 20,000 trillion calculations per second by 2011, which is estimated to be the speed of the human brain. And nanomedicine may one day rebuild damaged cells atom by atom, using nanobots the size of blood cells. But technological progress carries its own risks. “Globalisation and advanced technology allow fewer people to do more damage and in less time, so that possibly one day a single individual may be able to make and deploy a weapon of mass destruction.”
The report also praises the web, which it singles out as “the most powerful force for globalisation, democratisation, economic growth, and education in history”. Technological advances are cited as “giving birth to an interdependent humanity that can create and implement global strategies to improve the prospects for humanity”.
The immediate problems are rising food and energy prices, shortages of water and increasing migrations “due to political, environmental and economic conditions”, which could plunge half the world into social instability and violence. And organised crime is flourishing, with a global income estimated at $3 trillion – twice the military budgets of all countries in the world combined.
The effects of climate change are worsening – by 2025 there could be three billion people without adequate water as the population rises still further. And massive urbanisation, increased encroachment on animal territory, and concentrated livestock production could trigger new pandemics.
Although government and business leaders are responding more seriously to the global environmental situation, it continues to get worse, according to the report. It calls on governments to work to 10-year plans to tackle growing threats to human survival, targeting particularly the US and China, which need to apply the sort of effort and resources that put men on the Moon.
“This is not only important for the environment; it is also a strategy to increase the likelihood of international peace. Without some agreement, it will be difficult to get the kind of global coherence needed to address climate change seriously.”
While the world has the resources to address its challenges, coherence and direction have been lacking. Recent meetings of the US and China, as well as of Nato and Russia, and the birth of the G20 plus the continued work of the G8 promise to improve global strategic collaboration, but “it remains to be seen if this spirit of co-operation can continue and if decisions will be made on the scale necessary to really address the global challenges discussed in this report”.
Although the scale of the effects of climate change are unprecedented, the causes are generally known, and the consequences can largely be forecast. The report says, “coordination for effective and adequate action is yet incipient, and environmental problems worsen faster than response or preventive policies are being adopted”.
Jerome Glenn, director of the Millennium Project and one of the report’s authors, said: “There are answers to our global challenges, but decisions are still not being made on the scale necessary to address them. Three great transitions would help both the world economy and its natural environment – to shift as much as possible from freshwater agriculture to saltwater agriculture; produce healthier meat without the need to grow animals; and replace gasoline cars with electric cars.”
